A Modeling Approach for Strategic Fleet Sizing Under Maritime Sovereignty: Application to the Moroccan National Fleet

The disruptions experienced by global supply chains in recent years have reignited the importance of maritime sovereignty, particularly through the creation or reinforcement of national shipping fleets. In this context, the present study explores strategic approaches to national fleet sizing, drawing from recent policy directions and maritime planning models. The study is motivated by the need to design resilient and sovereign fleets that reduce dependency on foreign operators and strengthen autonomy in trade logistics. To complement this analysis, a mathematical model is developed in the form of a Mixed-Integer Nonlinear Programming (MINLP) formulation, where sovereignty is captured through the share of vessel operations under national control. In addition to sovereignty, the model integrates criteria of economic viability, environmental impact, and resilience, positioning Maritime Fleet Sizing within the broader scope of Strategic Transport Planning and Green Maritime Transport. Numerical experiments are carried out on a representative dataset of vessels and strategic routes, illustrating how sovereignty thresholds affect fleet composition and deployment. The results highlight a fundamental trade-off between sovereignty and profitability, emphasizing the need for strategic decision-making that carefully balances autonomy objectives with resilience and environmental considerations. Findings also show that moderate sovereignty thresholds support cost-efficient and diversified fleets, while maximalist sovereignty requirements lead to reduced coverage, higher unmet demand, and lower profitability. These insights underline the importance of calibrated strategies, where Sovereignty, Resilience in Maritime Logistics, and sustainability are treated as interconnected pillars of long-term fleet development.

@article{KHALFI2025,
  title     = {A Modeling Approach for Strategic Fleet Sizing Under Maritime Sovereignty: Application to the Moroccan National Fleet},
  journal   = {International Journal of Advanced Computer Science and Applications},
  volume    = {16},
  number    = {8},
  year      = {2025},
  publisher = {The Science and Information Organization},
  author    = {Mohamed Anas KHALFI and Aziz AIT BASSOU and Mustapha HLYAL and Jamila EL ALAMI},
  doi       = {10.14569/IJACSA.2025.0160851},
  url       = {https://doi.org/10.14569/IJACSA.2025.0160851}
}