The Science and Information (SAI) Organization
  • Home
  • About Us
  • Journals
  • Conferences
  • Contact Us

Publication Links

  • IJACSA
  • Author Guidelines
  • Publication Policies
  • Metadata Harvesting (OAI2)
  • Digital Archiving Policy

IJACSA

  • About the Journal
  • Call for Papers
  • Author Guidelines
  • Submit your Paper
  • Current Issue
  • Archives
  • Indexing
  • Editors
  • Reviewers
  • Apply as a Reviewer

IJARAI

  • About the Journal
  • Archives
  • Indexing & Archiving
  • Editorial Board

Special Issues

  • Home
  • Archives
  • Proposals
  • Guest Editors

Computing Conference 2021

  • Home
  • Call for Papers
  • Submit your Paper/Poster
  • Register
  • Venue
  • Contact

Intelligent Systems Conference (IntelliSys) 2021

  • Home
  • Call for Papers
  • Submit your Paper/Poster
  • Register
  • Venue
  • Contact

Future Technologies Conference (FTC) 2021

  • Home
  • Call for Papers
  • Submit your Paper/Poster
  • Register
  • Venue
  • Contact

Future of Information and Communication Conference (FICC) 2021

  • Home
  • Call for Papers
  • Submit your Paper/Poster
  • Register
  • Venue
  • Contact
  • Home
  • Call for Papers
  • Guidelines
  • Submit your Paper
  • Current Issue
  • Archives
  • Indexing
  • Editors
  • Reviewers
  • Subscribe

Article Details

Copyright Statement: This is an open access article licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, even commercially as long as the original work is properly cited.

Investigating Epidemic Growth of COVID-19 in Saudi Arabia based on Time Series Models

Author 1: Mohamed Torky
Author 2: M. Sh Torky
Author 3: Azza Ahmed
Author 4: Aboul Ella Hassanein
Author 5: Wael Said

Download PDF

Digital Object Identifier (DOI) : 10.14569/IJACSA.2020.0111256

Article Published in International Journal of Advanced Computer Science and Applications(IJACSA), Volume 11 Issue 12, 2020.

  • Abstract and Keywords
  • How to Cite this Article
  • {} BibTeX Source

Abstract: Predictive mathematical models for simulating the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic are an interesting and fundamental approach to understand the infection growth curve of the epidemic and to plan effective control strategies. Time series predictive models are one of the most important mathematical models that can be utilized for studying the pandemic growth curve. In this study, three-time series models (Susceptible-Infected-Recovered-Death (SIRD) model, Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered-Death (SEIRD) model, and Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Quarantine-Recovered-Death-Insusceptible, (SEIQRDP) model) have been investigated and simulated on a real dataset for investigating Covid-19 outbreak spread in Saudi Arabia. The simulation results and evaluation metrics proved that SIRD and SEIQRDP models provided a minimum difference error between reported data and fitted data. So using SIRD, and SEIQRDP models are used for predicting the pandemic end in Saudi Arabia. The prediction results showed that the Covid-19 growth curve will be stable with detected zero active cases on 2 February 2021 according to the prediction computations of the SEIQRDP model. Also, the prediction results based on the SIRD model showed that the outbreak will be stable with active cases after July 2021.

Keywords: COVID-19 outbreak; time series models; SIRD; SEIRD; SEIQRDP

Mohamed Torky, M. Sh Torky, Azza Ahmed, Aboul Ella Hassanein and Wael Said, “Investigating Epidemic Growth of COVID-19 in Saudi Arabia based on Time Series Models” International Journal of Advanced Computer Science and Applications(IJACSA), 11(12), 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.14569/IJACSA.2020.0111256

@article{Torky2020,
title = {Investigating Epidemic Growth of COVID-19 in Saudi Arabia based on Time Series Models},
journal = {International Journal of Advanced Computer Science and Applications},
doi = {10.14569/IJACSA.2020.0111256},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.14569/IJACSA.2020.0111256},
year = {2020},
publisher = {The Science and Information Organization},
volume = {11},
number = {12},
author = {Mohamed Torky and M. Sh Torky and Azza Ahmed and Aboul Ella Hassanein and Wael Said}
}


IJACSA

Upcoming Conferences

Future of Information and Communication Conference (FICC) 2021

29-30 April 2021

  • Virtual

Computing Conference 2021

15-16 July 2021

  • London, United Kingdom

IntelliSys 2021

2-3 September 2021

  • Amsterdam, The Netherlands

Future Technologies Conference (FTC) 2021

28-39 October 2021

  • Vancouver, Canada
The Science and Information (SAI) Organization
BACK TO TOP

Computer Science Journal

  • About the Journal
  • Call for Papers
  • Submit Your Paper
  • Indexing

Our Conferences

  • Computing Conference
  • Intelligent Systems Conference
  • Future Technologies Conference
  • Communication Conference

Help & Support

  • Contact Us
  • FAQ's
  • Terms and Conditions
  • Privacy Policy

© 2018 The Science and Information (SAI) Organization Limited. Registered in England and Wales. Company Number 8933205. All rights reserved. thesai.org