The Science and Information (SAI) Organization
  • Home
  • About Us
  • Journals
  • Conferences
  • Contact Us

Publication Links

  • IJACSA
  • Author Guidelines
  • Publication Policies
  • Digital Archiving Policy
  • Promote your Publication
  • Metadata Harvesting (OAI2)

IJACSA

  • About the Journal
  • Call for Papers
  • Editorial Board
  • Author Guidelines
  • Submit your Paper
  • Current Issue
  • Archives
  • Indexing
  • Fees/ APC
  • Reviewers
  • Apply as a Reviewer

IJARAI

  • About the Journal
  • Archives
  • Indexing & Archiving

Special Issues

  • Home
  • Archives
  • Proposals
  • Guest Editors
  • SUSAI-EE 2025
  • ICONS-BA 2025
  • IoT-BLOCK 2025

Future of Information and Communication Conference (FICC)

  • Home
  • Call for Papers
  • Submit your Paper/Poster
  • Register
  • Venue
  • Contact

Computing Conference

  • Home
  • Call for Papers
  • Submit your Paper/Poster
  • Register
  • Venue
  • Contact

Intelligent Systems Conference (IntelliSys)

  • Home
  • Call for Papers
  • Submit your Paper/Poster
  • Register
  • Venue
  • Contact

Future Technologies Conference (FTC)

  • Home
  • Call for Papers
  • Submit your Paper/Poster
  • Register
  • Venue
  • Contact
  • Home
  • Call for Papers
  • Editorial Board
  • Guidelines
  • Submit
  • Current Issue
  • Archives
  • Indexing
  • Fees
  • Reviewers
  • Subscribe

DOI: 10.14569/IJACSA.2014.051108
PDF

Vector Autoregression (Var) Model for Rainfall Forecast and Isohyet Mapping in Semarang – Central Java – Indonesia

Author 1: Adi Nugroho
Author 2: Subanar
Author 3: Sri Hartati
Author 4: Khabib Mustofa

International Journal of Advanced Computer Science and Applications(IJACSA), Volume 5 Issue 11, 2014.

  • Abstract and Keywords
  • How to Cite this Article
  • {} BibTeX Source

Abstract: Agricultural and plantation activities in Indonesia, especially in Semarang, Central Java, Indonesia rely on water supply from the rainfall. The rainfall in the future is basically influenced by rainfall patterns, humidity and temperature in the past. In this case, Vector Autoregression (VAR) multivariate model is applied to forecast the rainfall in the future, in which all along Indonesian Agency for Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics (BMKG) generally uses ARIMA model (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) to carry out the same thing. The study applied the data, comprising the data of rainfall, humidity and temperature taken on a monthly basis during 2001-2013 periods from 5 measurement stations. Plotting of rainfall forecast result with VAR method is portrayed in the form of isohyet contour map to see the correlation between rainfall and coordinates of the area of the rainfall. The forecast result shows that VAR method is quite accurate to use for rainfall forecast in the study area as well as better than ARIMA method to forecast the same thing as having smaller Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error(MAPE).

Keywords: Rainfall Forecast; VAR; Multivariate Time Series; Isohyet

Adi Nugroho, Subanar, Sri Hartati and Khabib Mustofa, “Vector Autoregression (Var) Model for Rainfall Forecast and Isohyet Mapping in Semarang – Central Java – Indonesia” International Journal of Advanced Computer Science and Applications(IJACSA), 5(11), 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.14569/IJACSA.2014.051108

@article{Nugroho2014,
title = {Vector Autoregression (Var) Model for Rainfall Forecast and Isohyet Mapping in Semarang – Central Java – Indonesia},
journal = {International Journal of Advanced Computer Science and Applications},
doi = {10.14569/IJACSA.2014.051108},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.14569/IJACSA.2014.051108},
year = {2014},
publisher = {The Science and Information Organization},
volume = {5},
number = {11},
author = {Adi Nugroho and Subanar and Sri Hartati and Khabib Mustofa}
}



Copyright Statement: This is an open access article licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, even commercially as long as the original work is properly cited.

IJACSA

Upcoming Conferences

IntelliSys 2025

28-29 August 2025

  • Amsterdam, The Netherlands

Future Technologies Conference 2025

6-7 November 2025

  • Munich, Germany

Healthcare Conference 2026

21-22 May 2026

  • Amsterdam, The Netherlands

Computing Conference 2026

9-10 July 2026

  • London, United Kingdom

IntelliSys 2026

3-4 September 2026

  • Amsterdam, The Netherlands

Computer Vision Conference 2026

15-16 October 2026

  • Berlin, Germany
The Science and Information (SAI) Organization
BACK TO TOP

Computer Science Journal

  • About the Journal
  • Call for Papers
  • Submit Paper
  • Indexing

Our Conferences

  • Computing Conference
  • Intelligent Systems Conference
  • Future Technologies Conference
  • Communication Conference

Help & Support

  • Contact Us
  • About Us
  • Terms and Conditions
  • Privacy Policy

© The Science and Information (SAI) Organization Limited. All rights reserved. Registered in England and Wales. Company Number 8933205. thesai.org