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Article Details

Copyright Statement: This is an open access article licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, even commercially as long as the original work is properly cited.

Drought Forecasting in Alibori Department in Benin using the Standardized Precipitation Index and Machine Learning Approaches

Author 1: Rodrigue B. W. VODOUNON
Author 2: Henoc SOUDE
Author 3: Oss´enatou MAMADOU

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Digital Object Identifier (DOI) : 10.14569/IJACSA.2022.01312113

Article Published in International Journal of Advanced Computer Science and Applications(IJACSA), Volume 13 Issue 12, 2022.

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Abstract: Drought forecasting provides an early warning for the effective management of water resources to avoid or mitigate drought damage. In this study, the prediction of droughts is carried out in the department of Alibori in Benin republic using the standardized precipitation index (SPI) where two Machine Learning approaches were used to set up the drought prediction models which were Random Forest (RF) and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBOOST). The performance of these models was reported using metrics such as: coefficient of determination (R2), root mean square error (RMSE), mean square error (MSE), and root mean absolute error (MAE). The results revealed that XGBOOST models gave better prediction performance for SPI 3, 6, 12 with coefficients of determination of 0.89, 0.83 and 0.99, respectively. The square root mean square error (RMSE) of the models gives 0.29, 0.40 and 0.07, respectively. This work demonstrated the potential of artificial intelligence approaches in the prediction of droughts in the Republic of Benin.

Keywords: Droughts; forecasting; machine learning; SPI

Rodrigue B. W. VODOUNON, Henoc SOUDE and Oss´enatou MAMADOU, “Drought Forecasting in Alibori Department in Benin using the Standardized Precipitation Index and Machine Learning Approaches” International Journal of Advanced Computer Science and Applications(IJACSA), 13(12), 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.14569/IJACSA.2022.01312113

@article{VODOUNON2022,
title = {Drought Forecasting in Alibori Department in Benin using the Standardized Precipitation Index and Machine Learning Approaches},
journal = {International Journal of Advanced Computer Science and Applications},
doi = {10.14569/IJACSA.2022.01312113},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.14569/IJACSA.2022.01312113},
year = {2022},
publisher = {The Science and Information Organization},
volume = {13},
number = {12},
author = {Rodrigue B. W. VODOUNON and Henoc SOUDE and Oss´enatou MAMADOU}
}


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