Abstract: This research explores urban growth based scenarios for the city of Nairobi using a cellular automata urban growth model (UGM). African cities have experienced rapid urbanization over the last decade due to increased population growth and high economic activities. We used multi-temporal Landsat imageries for 1976, 1986, 2000 and 2010 to investigate urban land-use changes in Nairobi. Our UGM used data from urban land-use of 1986 and 2010, road data, slope data and exclusion layer. Monte-Carlo technique was used for model calibration and Multi Resolution Validation (MRV) technique for validation. Simulation of urban land-use was done up to the year 2030 when Kenya plans to attain Vision 2030. Three scenarios were explored in the urban modelling process; unmanaged growth with no restriction on environmental areas, managed growth with moderate protection, and a managed growth with maximum protection on forest, agricultural areas, and urban green. Thus alternative scenario development using UGM is useful for planning purposes so as to ensure sustainable development is achieved. UGM provides quantitative, visual, spatial and temporal information which aid policy and decision makers can make informed decisions.

Kenneth Mubea, Roland Goetzke and Gunter Menz, “Applying Cellular Automata for Simulating and Assessing Urban Growth Scenario Based in Nairobi, Kenya” International Journal of Advanced Computer Science and Applications(IJACSA), 5(2), 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.14569/IJACSA.2014.050201

@article{Mubea2014,
title = {Applying Cellular Automata for Simulating and Assessing Urban Growth Scenario Based in Nairobi, Kenya},
journal = {International Journal of Advanced Computer Science and Applications},
doi = {10.14569/IJACSA.2014.050201},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.14569/IJACSA.2014.050201},
year = {2014},
publisher = {The Science and Information Organization},
volume = {5},
number = {2},
author = {Kenneth Mubea and Roland Goetzke and Gunter Menz}
}